It’s Iowa Caucus day.
The New York Times does a nice job explaining why Iowa is important: in short, it’s first, so it gets a lot of immediate attention – from both candidates and the media.
And this year, of course, is big: anti-establishment candidates could win today’s caucus. Both Donald Trump (R) and Bernie Sanders (D) are trending well in the Hawkeye State.
It’ll be interesting to see just how Millennials vote in the caucus. We’ve been told Sanders is an overwhelming favorite about the 18-34 base, but polls don’t tell the whole story. I still think Sanders has the Millennial vote, but it may not be the 70-25 score against Clinton we’ve been prepped to hear.
Meanwhile, I’m maybe more interested in how Millennial Republicans vote. Early on I tabbed Rubio as the most likely Millennial Republican candidate, mainly because of his youthful energy, but also because he jumped on an idea of conservative progressivism early on. What we’ve seen, however, is a cry against any and all establishment, from both ends. And this makes sense – Millennials are tired of wasting money on loans and bills, tired of not getting what they feel they deserve, tired of not being put first. In fact they’re a lot like their parents, the Baby Boomers, who looked strongly at George McGovern and Barry Goldwater in the 1960s.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump’s numbers are much larger than anticipated among the younger age group.
In the end the results of the Iowa Caucus are meaningful but ultimately small. There’s still plenty of time for the top candidates to establish themselves and reveal their plans; moreover, Millennials are still waiting for better indicators. But for sure, the political landscape has changed dramatically, proving the status quo won’t cut it anymore on either end.